NORTHERN NIGERIA INTERNAL SECURITY SITREP- Week Ending 01 November 2014

Situation Friendly Forces

26 October

The Catholic Diocese of MAIDUGURI stated that there were over 90,000 displaced persons in the North East many of whom were living in the bush and feed

27 October

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ambassador Aminu WALI stated that negotiations with Boko Haram under the auspices of President Idriss DEBY were still on course, whilst receiving the Foreign Minister of FRANCE M. Laurent FABIUS and GERMANY Frank-Walter STEINMEIER in ABUJA. The visiting ministers stated they were ready to support any measures that would aid the ceasefire.

28 October

The acting Inspector General of Police Suleiman ABBA stated that 30 policeman from the Police Training Camp in GWOZA were still missing

30 October

The ADAMAWA State Government has imposed a 24 hour curfew on MUBI, MARARABA MUBI and UBA

Media reports indicate that 300 soldiers from 234 Bn who withdrew from MUBI have concentrated at SONG, SONG LGA, ADAMAWA State under Brigadier AGBAREFE, Commander 23 Brigade with several armoured vehicles for a counter attack on MUBI

ADAMAWA State Emergency Management Agency opened a new camp for IDPs along NUMAN-GOMBE Road for people from MUBI. 3,000 have registered at the camp as well as 6,000 at the old camp in the NYSC Camp, GEIRE LGA

01 November

ADAMAWA State government imposed a statewide curfew

DHQ states that air and ground operations are ongoing against insurgents in ADAMAWA State and it is studying the latest Boko Haram video.

Media reports indicate that Commanders of 213 Battalion which withdrew from MUBI and others have been arrested and detained at 23 Brigade HQ, YOLA, ADAMAWA State. The officers were named as Col IBRAHIM, Lt Col MAGAJI and 3 others.

Situation Enemy Forces

26 October

Gunmen mounted in pickup truck attacked MIRINGA, BIU LGA, BORNO State around 2.00pm with small arms killing 5 people and injuring an unspecified number.

Gunmen attacked GINDI WAYA and SONDI Villages, WUKARI LGA, ADAMAWA State killing 30 people

Gunmen killed a man in TAKUM, TAKUM LGA, TARABA State

Gunmen ambushed a Police patrol in the vicinity of KUKAWA killing 2 policemen, abducting 2 others and incurring several casualties of their own.

27 October

Gunmen attacked GAVA and ZALIDVA Villages, GWOZA LGA, BORNO State abducting several dozen people including children, burning down hundreds of property and vehicles

Gunmen mounted in pickup trucks and motorcycles attacked KUKAWA, KUKAWA LGA, BORNO State around 4.00am with small arms and RPGs killing 3 persons and burning the Local Government HQ, Police Station and Government Lodge and hundreds of vehicles.

28 October

Gunmen attacked UBA, ADAMAWA State, security forces withdrew in the direction of MUBI and YOLA

Gunmen attacked MARARABA HILDI, ADAMAWA State and occupied it

29 October

Gunmen attacked MUBI, ADAMAWA State around 2.30pm. The gunmen targeted 234 Battalion base, the Police Station and MUBI Prison freeing the inmates. The attackers also destroyed a bridge near the Emirs Palace. The security forces withdrew covered by attack helicopters, while the civilian population that could escape fled towards YOLA and CAMEROUN. The 234 Bn commander Lt Col AGWU was reportedly injured in a road traffic accident during the action. 213 Bn and 21 Support Group also reportedly withdrew

30 October

Gunmen attacked VIMTIM, MUBI NORTH LAGA, ADAMAWA State

Gunmen attacked SHIFIDDA Village, JIBIYA LGA, KATSINA State around 12.00pm with small arms killing 6 people and burning several properties

31 October

Boko Haram has released a video through its normal channels in which a man referring to himself as ‘SHEKAU’ denied knowledge of Danladi AHMADU, the ceasefire and stated that the GSS CHIBOK abductees had been married off. He also claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of a GERMAN citizen in ADAMAWA State in July.

Gunmen attacked SABON GARI, DAMBOA LGA, BORNO State, and withdrew towards MANDAFUMA Village, BIU LGA where they were ambushed by pursuing elements of the military and the CJTF in the vicinity of GUR resulting in 41 gunmen killed and 1 captured.

An IED detonated in at the GOMBE Line Bus Terminus in GOMBE, GOMBE State around 9.30am, killing at least 23 people and injuring at least 32. 3 men were arrested after witnesses alleged that they had dropped 3 bags in the park between buses.

01 November

Gunmen mounted in vehicles attacked UBA with small arms and IEDs killing 18 people and destroying several houses

Situation External Forces

26 October

Commander of French Op BARKHANE (Counter terror/ counter insurgent mission in the Sahel), General Jean- Pierre PALASSET stated that Boko Haram showed signs of weakening, in an interview in N’DJAMENA, CHAD

31 October

UNHCR expressed concern over the state off refugees and IDPs in the NIGERIA/ CAMEROUN border region, stating recent attacks had hampered efforts to relocate people to another camp at MINAWAO 120km from the fighting

Camerounian forces report approximately 300 Nigerian forces withdrew from MUBI to BOUCLA Village, BOURHA Prefecture, EXTREME NORD Region, CAMEROUN. Nigerian refugees are reported in NENOUE and MAYO LOUTI Divisions and GACHIGA Town

Insurgent Incidents  IED Vehicle IED Suicide IED Small Arms Small arms+IED Other wpns Theft Kidnapping Foreign attacks
1 0 0 12 1 0 0 2       0

Analysis

Boko harams Dry Season Ceasefire Offensive

It is fairly understandable and in fact would be dereliction of duty if the FGN had not tried to negotiate with Boko Haram, what is fairly incomprehensible is the unilateral declaration of a ceasefire. Not just by the more powerful side, the legal, governing body but without any attempt to obtain a credible commitment from the other side. It is entirely possible the negotiations were in good faith, it is also entirely possible that the Boko Haram simply reneged on the deal. However all of this should have been anticipated and a robust contingency plan enacted.

The apparent routing of an entire Brigade at Mubi demonstrates that the fundamental leadership, doctrinal and organisational problems that have plagued the Nigerian Army are yet to be fixed and will not be fixed without clear headed intelligent leadership.

There is not much to write or analyse. As predicted Boko Haram rapidly put their money and released leaders to use and launched their Dry Season Offensive.

It is difficult to guess their intent just yet but I would suggest the vainglorious attempt to capture Maiduguri will take a back burner to the more sensible and obtainable goal of securing their gains,

I believe these are shaping ops for the Dry Season offensive.

Thus while the eastern attacks in Gombe could be seen as setting the scene for a more aggressive offensive or an investment of Damaturu or Potiskum, it is more likely these attacks are a diversion seeking to draw friendly forces to defend Gombe and the approaches to Potiskum and Damaturu.

I would assess the attack south on Mubi deeper into Adamawa as the main effort. Not only does this spoiling attack to prevent an offensive towards Madagali and Gwoza, but secures their southern flank and protects access to the mountains. Same as the capture of Abadam which drew forces away from Lake Chad as the dry season sets in an it shrinks opening up new routes by which supplies can be smuggled.

As a commenter on the Nigerian DefSec Blog Beegeagle said ‘Nigeria Ceases fire Boko Haram Seize territory’.

There are virtually no counter measures left that will not result in large civilian casualties and displacement thus hard questions must be asked of the leadership and their strategy.

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About peccavi

A Nigerian with interests in defence, security, geopolitics, the military particularly small unit tactics, COIN, stabilisation and asymmetric warfare
This entry was posted in Counter insurgency, Defence, Nigeria Defence, Nigeria Strategy, Peace support, Peacekeeping, Stabilisation, Terrorism and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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