OP RESTORE ORDER SITREP- Week Ending 25 January 2014

A

Situation Friendly Forces:

20 January: The Finance Minister Ngozi OKONJO-IWEALA states that the Federal Government in collaboration with certain development partners will introduce a N5bn intervention programme Federal Initiative for the North East (FINE) for rehabilitating the North east of Nigeria as well as providing assistance for farmers

21 January: BORNO State Government has relaxed the dusk to dawn curfew that was imposed 2 December 2013 from 7.00pm to 6.00am to 9.00pm to 6.00am except for those on essential duties

22 January: the Federal Government has applied to the Federal High Court, ABUJA to reopen the cases of Salisu MOHAMMED, Inusa MUKAILU, Dan’azumi HARUNA and ABDULSALAMI ADAMU in order to amend the original 4 count charge for the UN Building Bombing in ABUJA in August 2011, that was thrown out in November 2013 due to faults in the prosecution’s case.

23 January:

  • The Federal High Court, ABUJA ordered the release of Mustapha Yusuf (aka Habib), Ismaila ABDULAZEEZ and Ibrahim Isa HAYAFU as they had been detained 3 months without trial on suspicion of being members of Boko Haram but had not been charged. 3 others; Dr Nazeef YUNUS, Ayingba Umar MUSA and Salami ABDULLAHI arrested with them remain in detention. The case was adjourned till 28 January.
  • A businessman Alhaji Salami ABDULLAHI has sued the DSS for N10bn in damages for unlawful arrest and detention at the Federal High Court, ABUJA. He stated he was arrested October 2013 at one of his petrol stations and had been detained since then without trial. Counsel for the DSS requested that the application be dismissed as a Magisterates Court in LOKOJA, KOGI State had ordered the applicants detention

24 January: UNHCR reports that 5,500 Nigerians have fled their villages in the vicinity of BANKI, BORNO State due to fighting between Boko Haram and the Nigerian security forces. 4,000 have fled to CAMEROUN with most in the LOGONE-ET-CHARI area of EXTREME NORD Region, bringing the total number of Nigerian refugees to 12,428 in CAMEROUN of which 2,183 are at a UNHCR camp in MINAWAO. 1,500 have gone to DIFFA Region in NIGER REPUBLIC after an attack on GASHAGAR. 38,000 people have been displaced to NIGER from NIGERIA (8,000 Nigerians and 30,000 Nigeriens).

Situation Enemy Forces:

19 January: insurgents attacked ALAU NGAWO FATIE Village, JERE LGA, BORNO State around 10.00pm killing 18 civilians and burning approximately 100 houses.

20 January:

  • Suspected insurgent mounted on 2 motorcycles attacked WALA Village, GWOZA LGA, BORNO State killing 3 civilians and wounding 4 others. 5 houses and 3 shops along the MAIDUGURI-GWOZA road were burnt
  • 3 gunmen shot dead a teacher Mallam Lawan MANGA at Government Girls Secondary School, WULGO and wounded his housemate Mallam Akura WALBINTU in WULGO, GAMBORU NGALA LGA, BORNO State near the CHAD/ CAMEROUN border around 10.30pm.

21 January: gunmen attacked NJABA Village, DAMBOA LGA, BORNO State killing 10 civilians and wounding 5, who were taken to hospital in MAIDUGURI

22 January: Gunmen attacked KAYA Village, DAMBOA LGA, BORNO State killing 8 people and burning the village, 2 other villages MUDE and KWALJIRI were allegedly burnt down as well with no casualties

23 January: residents of 29 communities in BORNO State have fled to MAIDUGURI following the attack on ALAU NGAWO Village. 500 persons are said to be internally displaced sleeping in the uncompleted Federal Training Centre Building, MAIDUGURI

Situation External Forces:

24 January: the CAMEROUN Ministry of Defence states that they have recruited 6,850 into their armed forces in order to expand the Presidential Guard (2,000), the Armed Forces (2,750) and 1,100 for the National Police within the last month, in order to create new units to combat Boko Haram and spill overs from the CAR crisis. A spokesman also stated they had received new military equipment and undertaken military exercises. Nigerian President Dr Goodluck JONATHAN will arrive in YAOUNDE on Monday 27th to discuss security arrangements with Camerounian President Paul BIYA

Situation Other Forces:

21 January: Bala KOLO ex BORNO Governor Ali SHERRIFFs campaign Manager has denied issung a statement accusing the BORNO State government of complicity in the 14 January MAIDUGURI bombing

22 January: Members of the BORNO Vigilante Youth Group detained 6 suspected insurgents in 2 pickup trucks at a petrol station along the BAMA Road attempting to buy fuel in drums. Another 3 in military style uniform were detained along the MAIDUGURI-BIU Road attempting to buy fuel and petrol

Statistics

Table 1 Casualties

  Killed Wounded Missing/   Detained
NPF/DSS

0

0

0

Military

0

0

0

Total NSF

0

0

0

Vigilantes

0

0

0

Insurgents

??

??

Male:

9

Female:

0

Civilian

40

10

0

Table 4 Insurgent incidents

Insurgent   Incidents  IED Vehicle IED Suicide IED Small Arms Small arms+IED Other wpns Theft Kidnapping

0

0

0

5

0

0

0

0

 

Analysis:

An overview of the events of the last few weeks gives one the impression that the Security Forces have made some gains against the enemy, particularly with regard to following up attacks, the involvement of the previously quiescent Camerounians in follow up operations must have come as an unpleasant (if not completely unexpected surprise) to Boko Haram.

As usual, when tested Boko Haram reacts by aggressively attacking civilians, this is a sound operational move from the enemies’ point of view and can even be viewed as a way of shaping the battlefield as they draw friendly forces to defend isolated and far flung villages and away from strike or clearance ops against Boko Haram.

It also allows them to gather supplies, and remind the civil population they are not defeated. By burning down villages and denuding them of their population it removes people who could either inform the authorities of their activities or actively resist them.

While the security forces are running around chasing them out of villages and denuding their bases and defences elsewhere, Boko Haram gains the time and space to deliver spectacular attacks. The internally displaced and refugee population and camps also creates an ideal cover for Boko Haram fighters to move about, hide, rest and recuperate.

Now that this pattern has been discerned it must be planned and catered for. It is virtually impossible to defend every town and hamlet but it is possible to now discern Boko Harams methodology and develop more efficient counter measures. Unfortunately alot of innocent civilians will bear the brunt of their depredations this year.

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About peccavi

A Nigerian with interests in defence, security, geopolitics, the military particularly small unit tactics, COIN, stabilisation and asymmetric warfare
This entry was posted in Counter insurgency, Defence, Nigeria Defence, Nigeria Strategy, Stabilisation, Terrorism and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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