OP RESTORE ORDER SITREP- Week Ending 18 January 2014

Situation Friendly Forces:

12 January: 16 Nigerian returnees from CAR aged 18-27, from BORNO State were allegedly detained by the DSS on suspicion of links with Boko Haram at NNAMDI AZIKIWE International Airport, ABUJA. They were allegedly taken to ASOKORO in ABUJA for interrogation. DSS Spokesperson Marylin OGAR in a cursory text message denied the arrests

13 January:

  • The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Lt Gen Azubuike IHEJIRIKA has stated that a Nigeria Army Special Operations Command (NASOC) has been approved by the Army Council to tackle insurgency. The US government would assist with training and equipment for the unit which according to Major Gen Ibrahim SANI (Chief of Innovation and Transformation) ‘..operations will be governed by precision of conduct, accuracy, timely speed and execution, surprise to keep any adversary off balance ……..’
  • The Federal High Court, ABUJA ordered the Federal Government to charge 6 alleged Boko Haram members (Dr Nazeef YUNUS, Umar MUSA (aka Abubakar), Mustapha Yusuf (aka Habib), Ismaila ABDULAZEEZ, Ibrahim isa HAYAFU and Salami ABDULLAHI) or set them free. The DSS stated the case file had already been sent to the Attorney General of the Federation

14 January: Special Operations Battalion, MUBI, ADAMAWA State CO, Lt Col Beyidi MARTINS returned currency recovered from insurgents who robbed the towns’ bureau de change district n December 2013. N3.5m, 12.5m Camerounian CFA Francs and 50,000 CAR CFA Francs were returned to the owners. 13 insurgents were killed in the operation, AK 47s, IEDS and RPGs were captured.

15 January: 3 men- Kalama ABBA, Babagana Mallam SAJE and Abba SADIQ aka Sheik Abbas have been charged before MAIDUGURI High Court for swindling Barrister Aisha Alkali WAKIL a member of the Presidential Committee on Security Challenges and Peaceful Resolution in the North East of N70m by claiming to be members of Boko Haram in Southern and Northern BORNO

Situation Enemy Forces:

13 January: at 2.00pm apetrol bombsl Maulad bomb blast toresis definitely definitely time to move on!laimed responsibility message denied the arrestspproximately 30 insurgents attacked LADI KAYAMUNA market, BORNO State with rifles, knives, petrol bombs and IEDs shooting 4 civilians and killing another with knives. They also burnt cars, shops and grains stores, prior to being repelled by troops with air support.

14 January:

  • A vehicle borne IED in a pickup truck carrying firewood was suicide detonated around 1.30pm at GSM Market by a military checkpoint called JTF Sector 4, in POST OFFICE neighbourhood, MAIDUGURI, BORNO State. 43 people were reported killed, 50 wounded, 1 person was detained, 15 vehicles and 4 motorcycle taxis were also destroyed. Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for the Eid el Maulad bomb blast.
  • Several hundred youth armed with sticks and machetes demonstrated in MAIDUGRI, claiming politicians were not doing enough to prevent attacks. They blamed former BORNO State Governor Ali Modu SHERIFF in particular and attacked people and property linked to him and the current governor Kashim SHETTIMA
  • Gunmen attacked TUBA Village, BORNO State reportedly killing 5 people

15 January:

  • Ali Modu SHERIFF’s spokesperson Mallam Bako BUNU blamed the bombing on elements of the state government specifying ‘a former chairman of the MAIDUGURI Metropolitan Council, and a highly placed official of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party’
  • Insurgents mounted on motorcycles and 4WD trucks attacked the police station in BANKI Town, BORNO State around 2.00am with rifles and RPGs, burning shops and houses. In the 4 hour firefight 1 policeman, 4 soldiers and 11 civilians were reported killed including a Camerounian woman on the Camerounian side of the border and wounded approximately 30 Nigerians and Camerounians. Several policemen and 2 soldiers were also wounded. Nigerian forces defeated the insurgents with helicopters and mounted and dismounted ground forces pursuing them to BANKILI Bridge on the NIGERIA/ CAMEROUN border and inflicting an unknown number of casualties. The insurgents reportedly slit the throats of civilians and stole food and money before withdrawing into CAMEROUN where they were engaged by Camerounian forces, who also reportedly arrested scores of people. Civilians from BANKI and AMCHIDE (CAMEROUN) have reportedly fled after the fighting

16 January: insurgents mounted in 3 vehicles and several motorcycles attacked GASHIGAR in MOBBAR LGA, BORNO State around 7.00pm killing 7 civilians and causing several hundred to flee to NIGER Republic, 3 others drowned in a river as they were escaping. 60 shops and 8 vehicles were destroyed in the fishing village.

Situation External Forces:

16 January: the Camerounian Defence Minister Edgar Alain Mebe NGO’O visited EXTREME NORD (FAR NORTH) Region, CAMEROUN and stated that forces had been deployed to secure the border with NIGERIA.

Situation Other Forces:

15 January: a group known as BORNO Elites for Peace, Stability and Progress have called for the arrst of former BORNO State Governor Senator Ali Modu Sherriff over the statement that he was aware of the perpetrators of the VBIED on Tuesday 14th January

16 January: the BORNO Youth Vigilante Association (Civilian JTF) has warned that they will act against politicians and their thugs in the same manner as they have insurgents if they breached the peace

Statistics

Table 1 Casualties

  Killed Wounded Missing/ Detained
NPF/DSS

1

2

0

Military

5

2

0

Total NSF

6

4

??

Vigilantes

0

0

0

Insurgents

??

??

Male:  

17

Female:

0

Civilian

74

50??

0  

Table 4 Insurgent incidents

Insurgent Incidents  IED Vehicle IED Suicide IED Small Arms Small arms+IED Other wpns Theft Kidnapping

0

1

1

2

2

0

0

0

 

Analysis:

Cycles of violence: The vehicle borne IED (VBIED) has made a return to Nigeria after a xxx hiatus. Whilst the most dramatic event of the week, the largest upsurge in violence has been small arms and IED attacks by insurgents with RPGs and IEDs.

The VBIED is interesting in that it would indicate that Boko Haram has either reconstituted its IED network in Maiduguri or found a way to beat checkpoints into the city. Unfortunately it is difficult to assess how much this urban terror attack indicates a renewed Boko Haram capability and how much reflects the negative environment domestic ‘do or die’ politics has engendered. Curiously the declaration by Mallam Bako Bunu, Senator Ali Modu Sherriffs’ spokesman that he knew the perpetrators of the VBIED appears to have attracted very little interest from the authorities. The run up to the election will completely distort the COIN and Counter terror effort, with politicians of all parties happy to sponsor and foment violence in pursuit of political aims.

However the fighting in the rural areas has increased, an indication one could say of the aggressiveness of Boko Haram and the yet to be perfected tactics and procedures of the security forces. The numbers and impunity with which the enemy launches attacks indicates they still have the men, materiel and morale to risk in attacks such as this.

This commentator would suggest the situation has settled into a fairly predictable cycle of violence. The enemy will launch attacks against civilians, friendly forces will respond.  Majority of the targets will be soft targets, civilians or isolated police or military posts. This cycle will be disrupted by 3 factors, a change in tactics and force numbers by friendly forces, a resumption of an urban terror campaign by the enemy, a break out from the north east by the enemy. The spoiler is the run up to the 2015 elections and the depths to which politicians will go to achieve their aims.

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About peccavi

A Nigerian with interests in defence, security, geopolitics, the military particularly small unit tactics, COIN, stabilisation and asymmetric warfare
This entry was posted in Counter insurgency, Defence, Nigeria Defence, Nigeria Strategy, Stabilisation, Terrorism and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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