OP RESTORE ORDER SITREP- Week Ending 17 August 2013

Situation Friendly Forces:

11 August:

Following a weeklong Joint op between 1 Brigade Nigeria Army and the DSS, 20 x insurgents have been detained including an alleged High Value Target MALAM MUBARAK (aka DAN HAJIYA) along the SOKOTO-BIRNIN KEBBI ROAD in SOKOTO State. No friendly cas reported. More suspects arrested in GIDANLGWIE. MUBARAKs home in the vicinity of LAKASARI was raided recovering 3 x AK 47, 153 x 7.62mm ammunition, 1 x baton gun, 21 x IED (in cylinders), 27 x IED (in small tin cans), 3 x cartons of acid, 6 x IED (in 4litre containers), 4 x remote controls, 9v batteries, detonator cables, and IED components

17 x insurgents were killed including 1 x High Value Target/ Boko Haram Commander (Abubaker Zakaria YA’U) KIA in a joint op in MUBI, ADAMAWA State and 24 x insurgents also arrested and, 4 x AK 47, 500 x 7.62mm and an unspecified large quantity of cash captured.

5 x suspected insurgents detained by the JTF and Borno Youth Vigilance Group (BYVG) in DALA and HAUSARI Wards in MAIDUGURI. 2 of the suspects were women who hid rifles under their abayas. They were allegedly travelling on tricycles to initiate an attack in SHEHURI NORTH and KOFA BIYU Wards

13 August: security forces imposed a 24 hour curfew on POTISKUM, YOBE State and are conducting house to house searches to try and recover explosives stolen from the Rick Rock Quarry

16 August: NPF killed 7 x insurgents in a two hour firefight in an unknown location in GOMBE State

Situation Enemy Forces:

10 August: Insurgents killed 12 x civilians in a small arms attack in NGOM, MAFA LGA, BORNO State

11 August: Insurgents killed 40 x civilians during Subhi prayers in KONDUGA, BORNO State, 26 x civilians wounded and being treated for gunshot wounds at Maiduguri Teaching Hospital

Abubaker SHEKAU has released a new Hausa language video claiming responsibility for the spate of attacks in BORNO and YOBE States and stating they are winning significant victories against the Nigerian Security Forces

13 August: suspected insurgents attacked a Vehicle Check Point in GONORI killing 4 x soldiers and 2 x NPF. The attack took place around 7.00pm with approximately 20 men allegedly armed with AK 47’s. An unspecified number of soldiers and policemen were wounded

15 August: 50 x insurgents travelling in cars and motorcycles attacked the Police Station and military base in DAMBOA, BORNO State as well as burning shops and approximately 20 x civilian homes.  The attackers were alleged to be light skinned, Arabic speakers. The attack lasted from 8.00pm till midnight, 11 x civilians killed by suspected insurgents, no reported friendly casualties. 1 x insurgent reported killed and 1 x captured, unknown number injured. The attackers escaped towards YOBE and GOMBE States around midnight after being engaged by friendly troops

Situation Other Forces

11 August: 4 x Civilian JTF (CJTF) killed in KONDUGA, BORNO State while responding to the insurgent attacks

15 August:  BYVG members detain 1 x female suspect and 1 x male in GOMARI and BULUNKUTU Wards of MAIDUGURI with 1 x rifle and unspecified amount of ammunition. In an earlier operation 5 x female suspects were detained with an unspecified number of rifles and 254 x rounds of unspecified ammunition in 3 other wards of MAIDUGURI

Situation External Forces

14 August: US President Barack OBAMA invites President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria(PotFRN)  Dr Goodluck JONATHAN to a closed door meeting at Septembers UN General Assembly meeting according to the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy SHERMAN.

Statistics

  Killed Wounded Missing/ Detained
NPF

2

??

0

NA

4

??

0

Total NSF

6

??

0

CJTF

4

??

0

Insurgents

25

1

Male:   50

Female:   8

Civilian

63

26

0

 

AK47

 

Pistol 9mm 7.62 Ammo IEDs Vehicles Motorcycles RPGs Cash

 

7

0

907

48

0

0

0

Unspecified

 

Insurgent Incidents

 

IED Vehicle IED Suicide IED Small Arms Small arms+IED Other wpns Theft Kidnapping
0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0


Analysis

The pattern of attacks indicates that several of the key parameters of a counter insurgent force are being met, such as disrupting and deterring enemy attacks and causing attrition
The preponderance of attacks have involved small arms and hand held IED devices, in other words devices that are easy to conceal and transport and in the case of the hand held IED’s easy to make.
Attacks have used these hand held IED’s in the place of support weapons. Large scale attacks such as those seen in Damaturu with vehicle mounted support weapons will be much harder to mount due to security force patrols and checkpoints.
As can be seen from the relatively large amount of arrests of females with weapons the insurgents have reacted to these restrictions by using innocuous looking accomplices to infiltrate and pre place weapons for fighters to pick up and then launch attacks. It would be safe to assume that these female accomplices are also used to pick up and dispose of weapons after attacks. Similarly it is presumed that surveillance is carried out by young children and women.
The insurgents still have sufficient strength to mount platoon sized attacks and effectively withdraw, however these are much more rare. It will be noted that all the significant attacks have taken place in an axis East- South East of Maiduguri, all of which are in range of difficult terrain such as the Sambisa Forest, Gombole Nature Reserve etc and the Cameroon border.

The use of constant patrols, VCPs, house to house searches and detention of facilitators be they weapons carriers, cooks, medics, spotters, spies etc continues to disrupt insurgent operations. The casualties the insurgents sustain in their operations, like the weapons and IED components captured can be replaced but at some point the reservoir will dry up especially if people no longer see a viable outcome for the insurgency

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About peccavi

A Nigerian with interests in defence, security, geopolitics, the military particularly small unit tactics, COIN, stabilisation and asymmetric warfare
This entry was posted in Counter insurgency, Nigeria Defence, Terrorism, West Africa Defence and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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